CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2017-07-14T01:36:00-CME-001)

:Issued: 2017 Jul 14 1250 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/presto
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# FAST WARNING 'PRESTO' MESSAGE  from the SIDC (RWC-Belgium)         #
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The CME mentioned in previous PRESTO is a full halo CME, visible in SoHO/LASCO C2 images from 01:25 UT today (14-July-2017). The CME is initiated by M2.4 class flare (START: 01:07 UT; PEAK: 02:09 UT) and subsequent activity of NOAA 2665 NOAA and 2666 ARs that are situated currently close to the solar disk center.

The detailed analysis of the CME speed gives the value 900 km/s (plane-of-the-sky speed). Further acceleration of the CME is very likely. The arrival of a shock wave associated to this CME at the Earth can be expected from the day three (16 July-2017) around noon (estimated with the Drag Based Model).

The > 10 MeV and > 50 MeV proton fluxes at 1 AU have risen today at 04:10 UT. The > 10 MeV flux has reached the critical  threshold of 10 pfu at 07:10 UT, and it’s current values is 14 pfu. Energetic protons for this SEP event are accelerated by the shock wave (due to 3 hrs delay between flare and proton detection).

Upon the shock arrival geomagnetic activity may rise till Kp=5. There is a high chance for the Energetic Storm Particle (ESP) event to occur.
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